Madison Area Technical College

First, the ETS warns of a continuing gap in achievement among ethnicities. Citing data from the National Assessment of Education Progress, high school graduation rates have stayed level at 70% for the past decade, though the graduation levels for minority groups is closer to 50%. Over the same period of time, reading scores among 13 & 17 year-olds have remained flat. Math scores did improve across all groups, but not enough to reduce the disparities between whites & minorities.

In addition to a proficiency gap, the study warns of an expanding gap in earnings, caused by "seismic changes in the economy". Due to technological advances & globalization, the job market is being increasingly driven by "college labor market clusters", like management, business & professional fields, including health care & education.

Twenty-five years ago, when manufacturing was still instrumental to economic growth, the lifetime earnings of a bachelor degree-holder was only 51% higher than a counterpart with only a high school diploma. That was at the end of a period of shared prosperity, where incomes grew for workers across all levels of educational attainment. By 2004, the demand for specialized skills & higher cognitive abilities had grown, and along with it, that divide in lifetime earnings grew to 96%.

Population growth & demographic changes are expected to compound these problems. The U.S. labor force is expected to grow more slowly than it did during 1980-2000, and none of the growth will be attributed to native workers aged 25-54. Instead, growth will primarily come from older workers (especially from the baby boomers), but a considerable share of the growth will come from rising immigration.

Unfortunately, the immigration of new workers will pose unprecedented challenges for our economy, as many of these new workers will lack the education necessary to successfully find jobs that provide economic security, professional development opportunities, and upward mobility. According to ETS data, 57% of new immigrants during 2000-2004 had no post-secondary education, with 34% lacking even a high school degree or equivalency. The study also found a high correlation between an immigrant's educational background and their subsequent aptitude for the English language; 57% of immigrants who only completed high school and 79% of non-degree holders reported poor to zero profieciency in English, while only 15% of immigrants with a Master's degree or better experienced similar linguistic problems.

According to the ETS, the rising number of workers lacking basic reading skills portends further exacerbation of the earnings gap, since basic reading & math abilities are a strong indicator of a person's potentiality for academic achievement. Citing the recent National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, ETS notes that of adults aged 36-43 who scored in the bottom 30% for basic academic skills, less than 5% as a whole attained a bachelor's degree.

Excerpted from the ETS report, "America's Perfect Storm":

Employing demographic projections combined with current skill distributions, we estimate that by 2030, the average levels of literacy and numeracy in the working age population will have decreased by about 5 percent, while inequality will have increased by about 7 percent. Put crudely, over the next 25 years or so, as better-educated individuals leave the workforce, they will be replaced by those who, on average, have lower levels of education and skill.

Over this same period, nearly half of the projected job growth will be concentrated in occupations associated with higher education and skill levels. This means that tens of millions more of our students and adults will less be able to qualify for higher-paying jobs. Instead, they will be competing not only with each other and millions of newly arrived immigrants, but also with equally (or better) skilled workers in lower-wage economies around the world.

...While new policies focusing only on education and skills will not solve all the challenges associated with existing inequalities, if our society's overall levels of learning and skills are not increased and the existing gaps are not narrowed, there is little chance that economic opportunities will improve among key segments of our population.

...We are in the midst of a perfect storm in which these three powerful forces are combining to generate waves that already have had a considerable impact on our nation. Unlike the perfect storm chronicled in the novel written by Sebastian Junger, the forces behind this storm continue to gain strength, and calm seas are nowhere in sight. We can't hope to ride this one out. If we continue on our present heading and fail to take effective action, the storm will have a number of predictable and dire implications for future generations, with consequences that extend well beyond the economic realm to the ethos of our society.